Think back to this time last year, when virtually everyone assumed Jabari Smith Jr. was a lock to go No. 1. Then the whispers started just prior to draft night about a sudden change and, boom, Paolo Banchero became the Orlando Magic's top pick.
Safe to say, there will be no such switcheroo come next Thursday night, when the San Antonio Spurs will assuredly fulfill Victor Wembanyama's destiny as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft. However, there will be intrigue immediately afterward, when the Charlotte Hornets will have to decide between Scoot Henderson, long considered the next-best thing to Wembanyama in this draft, and Brandon Miller, whose incredible college season put him in the mix at No. 2.
Logic dictates that if the Hornets evaluate Henderson and Miller as close to the same level of prospect, they should take the player that fits best. In this case, that would likely be Miller, since Charlotte already has a ball-dominant point guard in LaMelo Ball. For me, however, Henderson and Miller aren't that close.
That's why I have Henderson going at No. 2, despite the potential conflict with Ball. I see Henderson as a transformational player who you can build a franchise around, and the Hornets simply can't pass that up. Take the best player and worry about fit later.
There are a few surprises in my first mock draft of the year, starting with Wembanyama's teammate Bilal Coulibaly landing in the lottery after being nowhere near the 2023 radar until late in the season. Fans of the Los Angeles Lakers might also be pleased, as elite sharpshooter Jordan Hawkins fell to them at No. 17.
Without further ado, here is my first 2023 NBA Mock Draft.
MOCK DRAFT
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
Victor Wembanyama C
FRANCE • 7'4" / 210 LBS
PROJECTED TEAM
San Antonio
PROSPECT RNK
1st
POSITION RNK
1st
PPG
21.6
RPG
10.4
APG
2.4
3P%
27.5%
Call me unconventional, but I think Wembanyama is a dark horse to go No. 1 overall. In all seriousness, this guy has the upside of being a 7-foot-4 Kevin Durant on offense and a mixture of Anthony Davis and Rudy Gobert defensively. There's a reason he's considered the best draft prospect since LeBron James, and nothing short of a meteor crashing into the Earth will prevent San Antonio from making him its next franchise cornerstone.
Round 1 - Pick 2
Scoot Henderson PG
G LEAGUE IGNITE • 6'2" / 195 LBS
PROJECTED TEAM
Charlotte
PROSPECT RNK
2nd
POSITION RNK
1st
PPG
16.5
RPG
5.3
APG
6.8
3P%
27.5%
Given the positional redundancy with LaMelo Ball, I understand why many experts expect Charlotte to go with the better-fitting Brandon Miller here. I just think Henderson is a significantly better prospect, and the Hornets are in no position to be picky about fit at this point. Henderson is as dynamic of a guard prospect as we've seen, and one source told me that while it's not likely, he wouldn't be SHOCKED if Henderson ended up having a better NBA career than Wembanyama. High praise, indeed.
Round 1- Pick 3
Brandon Miller SF
ALABAMA • FR • 6'9" / 200 LBS
PROJECTED TEAM
Portland
PROSPECT RNK
4th
POSITION RNK
2nd
PPG
18.8
RPG
8.2
APG
2.1
3P%
38.4%
Miller is a prototypical 3-and-D wing who can fit next to Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons, should Portland elect to keep its pick. Miller has the shot-creation and playmaking upside to become much more, which is why the Blazers shouldn't hesitate to draft him at No. 3 as someone who can bridge the gap between the present and the future.
Round 1 - Pick 4
Amen Thompson SF
OVERTIME ELITE • 6'6" / 214 LBS
PROJECTED TEAM
Houston
PROSPECT RNK
3rd
POSITION RNK
1st
PPG
16.4
RPG
5.9
APG
5.9
3P%
25%
It would be great for the Rockets to get a more seasoned prospect to help get an adult in the room, but they can't pass up Amen Thompson here. An absolutely explosive, elite athlete, Thompson has unlimited upside on both ends of the floor, though it may take a while for him to fulfill it.
Round 1 - Pick 5
Taylor Hendricks PF
UCF • FR • 6'8" / 214 LBS
PROJECTED TEAM
Detroit
PROSPECT RNK
10th
POSITION RNK
2nd
PPG
15.1
RPG
7
APG
1.4
3P%
39.4%
I rate Hendricks more highly than some draft analysts, and I absolutely love the fit in Detroit as a stretch-four capable of both defensive switching and rim protection. His main weak spots are ball-handling and shot-creation, but he won't need to worry about that one bit next to Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. What the Pistons need is athleticism and shooting around those dynamic guards, and Hendricks fits the bill perfectly.
- Colin Ward-Henninger
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