RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Pound-for-pound star Naoya Inoue will make his fourth appearance of the calendar year when he defends his undisputed and Ring Magazine junior featherweight championships against Mexico’s Alan Picasso at the Mohammed Abdo Arena on Saturday.
The 12-round bout is the main event of the eagerly anticipated "Ring V: Night of the Samurai" card in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
The 32-year-old Inoue (31-0, 27 KOs) stopped Ye Joon Kim (KO 4) and Ramon Cardenas (TKO 8) this year before outpointing former unified titleholder Murodjon Akhmadaliev in September. The Japanese warrior will be looking to shine in his Riyadh Season debut and appears to be taking this assignment very seriously as talks of a superfight against elite-level compatriot Junto Nakatani intensify.
“I’ve always had [Nakatani] in mind, but now that I’m here [in Riyadh], all my concentration and focus is on Picasso,” stated Inoue during the Grand Arrivals on Tuesday. “[With Terence Crawford’s retirement], I’d like to plan out a great match to be deserving of being pound-for-pound champion.”
Picasso (32-0-1, 17 KOs) is currently rated No. 4 by The Ring at 122 pounds. In his most recent outing, in July, he was pushed hard by Kyonosuke Kameda before claiming a 10 round majority decision victory. The 25-year-old pressure fighter has been the WBC’s mandatory challenger since August 2024 and will be contesting his first world title bout.
“I’ve been waiting a long time and prepared really well for this,” Picasso said. “I’m maybe not the strongest fighter, maybe not the quickest fighter, but I’m mentally very strong at the moment. I’ve been getting ready for this with the help of my family and we can do it.” The Ring provides some pre-fight analysis and makes a final pick on the outcome.
Naoya Inoue vs. Alan Picasso fight prediction
It’s no embarrassment that Picasso comes into this showdown as a +1400 underdog in a two-horse race. Almost any 122-pound fighter, with the obvious exception of Nakatani, would be given next to no chance of vanquishing “The Monster”.
Picasso is a quality operator and has a lot going for him. The challenger has a three-inch height advantage (5-foot-8 to 5-foot-5) and a two-and-a-half-inch reach advantage (70 inches to 67 ½ inches). He is also seven years younger than the champion and will be hoping to make that count.
As is often the case with Mexican fighters, Picasso is an aggressive volume puncher. That style is in his DNA. While he can operate efficiently on the outside, the challenger prefers to close the gap with the jab and go to work with hooks and uppercuts at mid-to-close range. In that posture, Picasso is a handful and has excellent punch variation.
Making all this work against Inoue, however, will be a tall order. Should the champ elect to stand off, it’s difficult to foresee Picasso outboxing him. Inoue is the faster and more skilled fighter of the two by far. On the flip side, if Picasso manages to get in close, he’s likely to encounter the kind of hellfire counterpunching that he’s never seen before.
The style looks made-to-order for Inoue, so the result will depend on how he wants to win. Against “MJ” Akhmadaliev, the future Hall of Famer produced a brilliant exhibition of boxing skill and movement to flummox the Uzbekistan native over the distance. If Inoue adopts that approach, then perhaps he goes the distance in back-to-back fights for the first time in his career.
That’s not what I envision. With Nakatani waiting in the wings, my guess is that Inoue will want to make a serious statement of intent. Invariably, Picasso will have to close the distance and is likely to come off second best in most of the exchanges. As the punishment increases, the damage will mount, bringing around a mercy stoppage late in the fight. There may also be a knockdown or two.
Prediction: Inoue TKO 10
- TOM GRAY
