Monday 13 May 2024

EUROPE'S TOP SOCCER LEAGUES: TITLE FIGHTS, UCL, RELEGATION

Can Arsenal pip Manchester City to the Premier League crown? Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images


 The 2023-24 season is drawing to a close and the battles for the major honours, relegation and promotion are starting to become clearer.

Here's a quick roundup of what has been decided, and what's still at stake, in the English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Spanish LaLiga, Italian Serie A and French Ligue 1.

Title: Arsenal (86, 37) are one point in front of Manchester City (85 points, 36 games), but Pep Guardiola's side have a game in hand -- away at Tottenham Hotspur on Tuesday.

If City win that, they can seal the title with a victory at home to West Ham on Sunday. Arsenal's final game is against Everton at the Emirates.



Champions League (4): Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool (78, 36) are confirmed for a top-four finish, leaving one place to be filled.

Aston Villa (67, 36) are all but there in fourth place with Tottenham (63, 36) having seen their form nosedive. Villa's place will be confirmed if they beat Liverpool on Monday.

Europa League (2): As it stands right now, only fifth gets a Europa League place. In the unlikely event that Tottenham finish fourth, Aston Villa can finish no lower than fifth.

Despite poor results, Spurs are in a strong position to finish fifth with a six-point lead over Newcastle United (57, 36) in sixth and Chelsea (57, 36) in seventh. Spurs still need a point because of their goal difference -- they face Man City on Tuesday then go to rock-bottom Sheffield United on the final day.

On Wednesday, Chelsea go to Brighton and Newcastle visit Man United.

Manchester United (54, 36) can now finish no higher than sixth but, because of their vastly inferior goal difference, that will definitely become seventh if they don't beat Newcastle on Wednesday.

Man United also take on Man City in the FA Cup final on May 25 (stream live on ESPN+, U.S. only). If Erik ten Hag's team lift the trophy then they will be in the Europa League (UEL). If City win the cup, then the UEL position transfers to the sixth place in the Premier League -- so it could still go to Man United that way too.

Europa Conference League (1): Pending the FA Cup final, sixth will go into the Europa Conference League. Newcastle hold it, with Chelsea and Man United close behind.

The UECL place will drop to seventh if Man City win the FA Cup or if Man United win the FA Cup and finish fifth or sixth. It would still be one of Man United, Newcastle and Chelsea -- and one of them will miss out on Europe completely.

If Man United win the FA Cup and finish seventh or eighth, the UECL place goes to sixth.

Relegation (3): An immediate return to the Championship for Sheffield United (16, 37) had already been confirmed, and they were joined by Burnley (24, 37) after they lost at Spurs on Saturday.

Luton Town (26, 37) are effectively relegated due to their vastly inferior goal difference to fourth-bottom Nottingham Forest (29, 37). On the final day, Luton would need to beat Fulham and Forest lose to Burnley with a goal difference swing of 12.

Leicester City and Ipswich Town have automatically been promoted to the Premier League. Leeds United, Southampton, West Bromwich Albion and Norwich City compete in the playoffs for one more place.


LaLiga - three full rounds to go, final weekend May 25-26

Title: Real Madrid (87, 35) were crowned champions last weekend.

Champions League (4): Real Madrid, Girona (75, 35) and Barcelona (73, 34) have secured their places.

Atlético Madrid (70, 35) are almost certain to take the fourth place, holding an eight-point lead over Athletic Club (62, 35).

It will be sealed on Wednesday if Atleti get a victory at Getafe, or if Athletic fail to win at Celta Vigo.


Real Madrid have sealed the LaLiga title. Jose Manuel Alvarez/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images

Europa League (2): Athletic won the Copa del Rey and are almost certain to finish in the top six, which means the place for the cup moves over to the league -- fifth and sixth will enter the UEL.

Either Atlético or Athletic will take one of the places, with Real Betis (55, 35) sitting in sixth. Real Sociedad (54, 34) in seventh have a game in hand, but that's away to Barcelona on Monday. Valencia (48, 35) and Villarreal (48, 35) have slim hope.

Real Sociedad also have to play both Valencia and Betis in their final three fixtures -- so it's all to play for.

Europa Conference League (1): This will go to seventh in the league, between Real Sociedad and Real Betis, while Valencia and Villarreal require a mini-miracle from here.

Relegation (3): Almería (17, 35), with two victories all season, have been relegated. Granada (21, 35) joined them on Saturday when Mallorca won at home to Las Palmas.

That leaves one relegation spot to be decided, with Cádiz (29, 35) giving themselves hope by beating Getafe on Sunday. They still have a lot to do to catch Celta Vigo (34, 35), Rayo Vallecano (35, 35) or Mallorca (35, 35).


Bundesliga - one round to go, final day May 18

Title: Bayer Leverkusen (87, 33) are still unbeaten and have already secured the first championship in their history.


Bayer Leverkusen have already lifted the trophy. (Photo by ANP via Getty Images)

Champions League (5): The Bundesliga has sealed an extra place through the European Performance Spot, which sends the team in fifth to the UCL too.

We already know who will fill the top five positions. Joining Leverkusen will be Bayern Munich (72, 33), VfB Stuttgart (70,33), RB Leipzig (64, 33) and Borussia Dortmund (60, 33).

Dortmund are through to the UCL final and guaranteed to finish fifth, and if they win it a UCL place will be given to sixth. Eintracht Frankfurt (46, 33) are in sixth but could be overtaken by TSG Hoffenheim (43, 33) on the final day. One of those two teams will be fully backing Dortmund against Real Madrid on June 1.

Frankfurt need a point at home to RB Leipzig to secure sixth. If they lose, then Hoffenheim can climb above them with a victory at home to Bayern. A small goal difference swing of three is also required, with Hoffenheim putting themselves unexpectedly into contention by winning 6-0 at Darmstadt on Sunday.

Europa League (2): There are a few complicating factors to the UEL places, which right now go to sixth in the league (Frankfurt) and the winners of the DFB Pokal.

The final of the DFB Pokal on May 25 (stream live on ESPN+, U.S. only) sees Leverkusen take on Kaiserslautern who, incredibly, could win the cup despite almost being relegated to the third division, as they sit four points above the 2. Bundesliga relegation zone with one game to be played. If Kaiserslautern pull off an almighty shock and do what no other team has done all season (beat Leverkusen), the league slots will be unaltered: sixth into the UEL and seventh into the UECL. If Leverkusen win the final, sixth and seventh will get a place in the UEL.

But right now only sixth place is certain of a UEL place.

If Dortmund win the UCL, Germany would surrender the place in the UEL earned by Dortmund in the league. So, Dortmund would qualify as UCL titleholders in fifth, with sixth getting the European Performance position. The only way seventh can get a UEL place is if Leverkusen win the cup.

Europa Conference League (1): At present, Hoffenheim hold the UECL position in seventh -- but that will be a UEL place if Leverkusen win the cup, with eighth into the UECL. Hoffenheim will definitely finish in the top eight, so it might just be a question of which competition they play in -- UCL, UEL or UECL.

SC Freiburg (42, 33) sit in eighth with a three-point gap to Heidenheim (39, 33), FC Augsburg (39, 33) and Werder Bremen (39, 33).

On the last day, Freiburg travel to relegation-threatened Union Berlin knowing victory, if Hoffenheim draw or lose, could see them finish seventh; a draw would guarantee they finish eighth. But if they lose, they can be overtaken as they have worse goal difference than the three teams below them.

Heidenheim are at home to Cologne, who have to win to have any chance of staying in the top flight, Augsburg travel to Leverkusen, who haven't lost to anyone all season, and Bremen host Bochum, who could still be relegated.

Relegation (2+1): Two teams are relegated, while third-bottom takes on third place in the 2. Bundesliga (Fortuna Düsseldorf) in a playoff for the right to play in the top flight.

The relegation of SV Darmstadt 98 (17, 33) has already been confirmed.

FC Cologne (27, 33) thought they were back in with a chance after a dramatic comeback for a 4-3 victory at home at Union Berlin (30, 33). Then Mainz beat Dortmund, which means the best Cologne can hope for is the relegation playoff spot ... by overtaking Union Berlin.

To go up to the playoff place, Cologne must win at Heidenheim on Saturday, hope Union lose at home to Freiburg, and there be a goal difference swing of four.

To avoid the playoff Union must win and, due to goal difference, hope Mainz (32, 32) lose at Wolfsburg or VfL Bochum (33, 33) are beaten at Bremen.

St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel have been automatically promoted into the Bundesliga.


Serie A - two full rounds to go, final day May 26

Title: Internazionale (92, 36) wrapped up the Scudetto last month as runaway champions.


Inter Milan have walked their way to the Scudetto. Getty Images


Champions League (5): Like Germany, Italy has secured an extra place in next year's competition through its clubs' performance in Europe this season, meaning at least five clubs will qualify.

Inter will definitely be joined by AC Milan (74, 36), Bologna (67, 36) and Juventus (67, 36).

So there's one place up for grabs, which is held by Atalanta (63, 35) in fifth and they have a game in hand and a three-point advantage so are in a very strong position. That extra match is against Fiorentina and both teams are in European finals; the only possible date to play the game is Sunday, June 2 -- a week after the final round of Serie A games is played. Atalanta and Fiorentina will therefore go into the "extra" game in full knowledge of the final position a result will earn.

AS Roma (60, 36) and Lazio (59, 36) are still in contention, but it's a big ask with two games remaining.

If Atalanta win the UEL this season (they face Leverkusen in the final on May 22) then Italy will have six clubs in the UCL -- the top four, Atalanta as UEL titleholders and the European Performance Spot. So, finishing will be enough for UCL football -- meaning Roma and Lazio will be cheering on Atalanta when they face Leverkusen.

Europa League (2): Atalanta face Juventus in the final of the Coppa Italia, so it's certain that sixth and seventh will qualify for the UEL.

Roma, Atalanta and Lazio are the main contenders, but there's a small amount of hope for ninth-placed Fiorentina (50, 34) with two games in hand. They are at home to Monza on Monday with a chance to reduce the gap.

If Atalanta win the UEL to qualify for the UCL and finish sixth or seventh, Italy will surrender that place in the UEL for the league.

Europa Conference League (1): Eighth place will enter the UECL, which is currently held by Napoli (51, 36) but Fiorentina are one point behind them with those two games in hand. Eighth could yet be filled by Atalanta, Lazio, Fiorentina, Torino (50, 36) or Monza (45, 35).

If Fiorentina win the UECL to qualify for the UEL and finish eighth, Italy will surrender its place in the UECL.

Relegation (3): Salernitana (15, 35) are relegated.

Sassuolo (29, 36) in second-bottom are back into contention but lost to Genoa on Sunday. Udinese (30, 35) are third bottom, with Empoli (32, 36), Frosinone (32, 36), Cagliari (33, 36) and Hellas Verona (34, 36) just above the drop zone.

Parma and Cesc Fàbregas' Como have been promoted to Serie A. Venezia. Cremonese, Catanzaro, Palermo, Sampdoria and Bresica take part in the playoffs.


Ligue 1 - one round to go, final day May 19

Title: Paris Saint-Germain (70, 32) have already secured the title.


Paris Saint-Germain are expected to do the double in France. Aurelien Meunier - PSG/PSG via Getty Images


Champions League (3+1): France gets three automatic places, with fourth place entering the UCL in the third qualifying round.

PSG and AS Monaco (64, 33) have already booked two of the slots.

There's a fierce battle for the two guaranteed place between Lille (58, 33), Brest (58, 33) and Nice (54, 32) -- though Nice's game in hand is at home to PSG on Wednesday.

Lille hold third place as their goal difference is just two better than Brest's.

On the final day, Lille are at home to Nice -- so it could still be a straight shootout -- while Brest go to Toulouse.

Europa League (2): Nice sit in fifth, right now a UEL place, and they cannot finish lower than this.

PSG take on Lyon in the final of the Coupe de France on May 25, and a victory for Les Parisiens will send sixth place into the UEL too.

Lens (50, 33) have sixth right now, but are being tracked by Lyon (50, 33), who have a much worse goal difference, and Marseille (47, 32), who play their game in hand away to Stade de Reims on Wednesday. If Marseille win that, they move above Lens.

On the final day Lens host Montpellier, Lyon are at home to Strasbourg and Marseille go to Le Havre.

Europa Conference League (1): This will depend on who wins the Coupe de France. If it's Lyon, and they finish seventh or lower, then sixth will still be the UECL place.

If PSG win the cup, or Lyon do so and finish sixth, then seventh gets the UECL place. Lens, Lyon and Marseille are the only clubs who can finish in this position.

Relegation (2+1): Two teams are relegated, with third-bottom facing a playoff with a team from the second division to remain in Ligue 1.

Clermont Foot (25, 33) were relegated when they lost at home to Lyon on Sunday.

The second automatic relegation place is between Lorient (26, 33) and Metz (29, 33). But it's looking bleak for Lorient, who must win at home to Clermont Foot while Metz lose at home to PSG and there needs to be a goal difference swing of eight.

Which leaves Metz probably facing the relegation playoff. To avoid it they must beat PSG, with Le Havre AC (32, 33) losing to Marseille and a goal difference swing of 12.

AJ Auxerre have been promoted to Ligue 1.

- Dale Johnson, General Editor, ESPN FC

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